The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is showing notable weaknesses compared to previous halving cycles, as highlighted by Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy. This analysis raises questions about the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin’s price movements.
Comparative Performance of Halving Cycles
Thorn’s assessment reveals that the ongoing cycle, which commenced after the April 2024 halving, exhibits significantly reduced volatility and lower price increases than its predecessors from 2012, 2016, and 2020. The all-time high of over $125,000 reached on October 5, 2025, was only 97% above the halving price of approximately $63,000. In contrast, the 2012 cycle saw a price surge of about 9,294%, culminating at around $1,163, while the 2016 cycle experienced a 2,950% increase, peaking at about $19,891. The 2020 halving cycle resulted in a 761% rise.
Changing Market Dynamics
Thorn noted, “Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” and questioned whether this trend represents a new normal for Bitcoin or a temporary phase. The decreasing volatility across halving cycles suggests that traditional market dynamics may be shifting, with BTC’s price potentially influenced by factors beyond the halving events or the established four-year cycle theory.
Volatility Trends and Market Reactions
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index has shown a marked decline, peaking at 9.64% on April 2, 2020, but failing to exceed 3.11% in the current cycle, with the latest reading at 1.75%. Critics of Thorn’s analysis argue that the performance of the current cycle is skewed due to an all-time high above $70,000 reached in March 2024, prior to the April halving. This surge was largely attributed to the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024.
Drawdown Comparisons and Future Outlook
Bitcoin’s drawdowns have also become less severe, as noted by Fidelity Digital Assets. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%. However, the current cycle’s decline from the all-time high to around $60,000 represents a drop of just over 50%. Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management firm VanEck, indicated in March that BTC might be nearing a bottom, with expectations for gradual price increases beginning in 2026. As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $74,703, reflecting a nearly 5% increase over the past week.
This article was produced by NeonPulse.today using human and AI-assisted editorial processes, based on publicly available information. Content may be edited for clarity and style.
