In a recent analysis, economists from Anthropic, Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory, have challenged the prevailing narrative surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment. Their findings suggest that AI is not displacing jobs at the alarming rates many experts, including CEO Dario Amodei, had forecasted.
In January 2026, Amodei expanded on his earlier prediction that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within the next one to five years. He stated, “In the end AI will be able to do everything, and we need to grapple with that.” However, the current reality indicates a different story.
Current Employment Trends
Massenkoff and McCrory’s report, titled “Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence,” reveals that there has been no systematic increase in unemployment among workers in roles considered highly exposed to automation since late 2022. They note, “We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations.” This suggests that while AI’s presence is growing, its immediate effects on employment may be less drastic than anticipated.
Contextual Factors
While there have been notable layoffs attributed to AI, such as Jack Dorsey’s decision to reduce Block’s workforce by around 4,000 employees, the researchers caution against attributing these changes solely to AI. They highlight that other economic factors, including revenue challenges, may also play significant roles.
A New Measurement Approach
To better understand AI’s impact, Massenkoff and McCrory propose a new metric called observed exposure, which focuses on how AI is actually being utilized rather than its theoretical potential. They acknowledge that AI has not yet reached its full capabilities. Previous studies, including one from Denmark, have shown no discernible effects of AI on jobs or wages.
Despite the introduction of this new measurement, the overall conclusion remains largely unchanged. Anthropic’s researchers anticipate that jobs with higher observed exposure to AI will experience slower growth through 2034 compared to other occupations, particularly affecting older, female, more educated, and higher-paid workers. However, they emphasize that the current changes in unemployment rates among the exposed groups are minimal, stating, “the average change in the unemployment gap… is small and insignificant.” The only notable exception is a slight decline in hiring rates for younger workers in exposed roles, which they describe as “just barely statistically significant.”
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